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Abstract Natural aerosols are an important, yet understudied, part of the Arctic climate system. Natural marine biogenic aerosol components (e.g., methanesulfonic acid, MSA) are becoming increasingly important due to changing environmental conditions. In this study, we combine in situ aerosol observations with atmospheric transport modeling and meteorological reanalysis data in a data-driven framework with the aim to (1) identify the seasonal cycles and source regions of MSA, (2) elucidate the relationships between MSA and atmospheric variables, and (3) project the response of MSA based on trends extrapolated from reanalysis variables and determine which variables are contributing to these projected changes. We have identified the main source areas of MSA to be the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic. Using gradient-boosted trees, we were able to explain 84% of the variance and find that the most important variables for MSA are indirectly related to either the gas- or aqueous-phase oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS): shortwave and longwave downwelling radiation, temperature, and low cloud cover. We project MSA to undergo a seasonal shift, with non-monotonic decreases in April/May and increases in June-September, over the next 50 years. Different variables in different months are driving these changes, highlighting the complexity of influences on this natural aerosol component. Although the response of MSA due to changing oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, DMS emissions, and sea ice) and precipitation remains to be seen, here we are able to show that MSA will likely undergo a seasonal shift solely due to changes in atmospheric variables.